Hot US Jobs Report Knocks Tech Stocks Off Their Perch
US employers added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double forecasts, with March and April revised up by a combined 93,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%. The strong print pushed the next Federal Reserve move back toward a hike - odds of a 2026 rate rise on Kalshi climbed to around 52% - and triggered a sharp tech selloff, with the Nasdaq down more than 4% in its worst day since Liberation Day. A Goldman Sachs index stripping out AI and AI-adjacent names was roughly flat, exposing how concentrated the pain was in long-duration AI bets whose valuations hinge on cheap money.
Read the clip
Bond Vigilantes Return as Yields Punch Through Danger Zone
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.2% last week, its highest since July 2007, with 30-year yields in Canada, Germany, France, Spain and Switzerland also hitting 12-month highs. Inflation has stayed sticky, with US CPI at 3.8% and PPI at 6%, pushing the implied odds of a Fed rate hike before year-end from under 10% in January to above 40%. A Bank of America survey found 62% of fund managers now expect 30-year yields to reach 6% this year, a level last seen in 1999. Higher yields threaten the AI buildout in particular, where more than $1tn of largely floating-rate debt funds capex that is outrunning revenue.
SpaceX Files for Record $80bn IPO With $37bn Hole in the Floor
SpaceX has filed to list on the Nasdaq under ticker SPCX, seeking to raise $80bn or more in what would be the largest IPO on record. The prospectus shows $4.7bn in Q1 revenue against a $4.3bn net loss, with cumulative losses of $37bn since inception. The connectivity arm housing Starlink turned a $1.1bn quarterly profit, but the AI unit lost $2.5bn and the core space business lost $662m. Elon Musk will retain roughly 85% of voting shares, and shareholder disputes are routed to arbitration. The listing is slated for June 12.
Trump's 3,700 Trades Light Up Wall Street's Conflict Alarms
President Trump disclosed more than 3,700 trades during the first quarter, with transactions valued between $220m and $750m across companies including Nvidia, Oracle, Microsoft and Boeing. Several purchases lined up neatly with policy moves that followed: at least $1m of Nvidia bought on January 6, days before chip exports to China were approved; Oracle stock bought a week before its TikTok stake was finalised; Boeing bought before a China jet order was announced. The White House denies any conflict of interest, and the 2012 STOCK Act does not cover the president. Enforcement capacity has thinned in parallel - DOJ headcount is down 4,000, SEC enforcement actions have fallen 30% this year, and CFTC actions are off 80%.
US Inflation Hits 3-Year High as Real Wages Slip
US consumer prices rose 3.8% in April from a year earlier, the highest reading in three years, with wage growth failing to keep pace with inflation for the first time since 2022. Producer prices climbed 6% year-over-year, the steepest jump since 2022, signalling more pressure to come down the supply chain. Energy drove roughly 40% of the monthly increase, with gasoline above $4.50 nationwide and over $6 in California amid the ongoing conflict with Iran. Odds of a US rate cut in 2026 have collapsed, with prediction markets now pricing the chance of a hike at 32%, up from under 10% at the start of the year.
US Inflation Hits 3-Year High as Energy Costs Bite
US inflation jumped 3.8% year-over-year in April, the hottest reading in three years and above forecasts. Energy drove 40% of the monthly rise and was up 18% from a year earlier, reflecting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the war with Iran. Core inflation climbed 2.8%, and real wages turned negative for the first time in three years. Oil is up roughly 70% since the war began, a move associated with US stocks trading around 5 percentage points below where they would otherwise sit.
GameStop's $56bn Swing at eBay Unravels Within Hours
GameStop has offered $56bn to acquire eBay, a company four times its size, in a bid by CEO Ryan Cohen to build a rival to Amazon. The financing leans on $9.5bn of cash, a $20bn 'highly confident' letter from TD Bank, and roughly $20bn in newly issued GameStop stock - heavy dilution for a company worth under $11bn. GameStop shares fell 10% on the news while eBay rose 5%, and institutional holders of eBay have shown little appetite to swap their stock for GameStop paper. A board rejection could land within days.
Anthropic Eclipses OpenAI as the AI Crown Changes Hands
Anthropic has overtaken OpenAI as the market's preferred AI bet, reaching a $30bn revenue run rate against OpenAI's $25bn and a $1tn secondary-market valuation. Roughly 80% of Anthropic's revenue is enterprise versus 40% at OpenAI, and it expects to break even by 2028 while burning a fraction of its rival's cash. A Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI missed internal revenue and user targets wiped nearly $400bn from the market value of linked names including Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and SoftBank. The odds of OpenAI listing before Anthropic have collapsed from 75% to 31% since November.
Markets Shrug Off Iran War as Tech Earnings Power Rally
Global equities have ripped higher two months into the Iran conflict, with the S&P 500 up 8%, the Nasdaq up 12% and the Dow up 6% since the so-called ceasefire was announced. The rally has come despite Brent crude holding above $103 a barrel, US gasoline prices up 35% since the war began, and continued naval skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz. Tech-heavy markets have led the charge, with Taiwan up 15% and Israel up 9%, as AI-driven earnings estimates posted their largest upward revision on record.